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  • Surge Pricing and Cindi of the Shattered Shoes

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    There were three parking places in front of Mad Merlin's Joke, Costume, and Magic Emporium, and one was a 30-minute load zone. That is where Cindi of the Shattered Shoes was parked, and she was not done shopping.

    She had come out to see if any other spaces had opened up, knowing that she'd been parked for nearly half an hour and her car was about to turn into a pumpkin. She found Jack the Blighter fuming, because the cars parked in front of and behind his Bulgemobile were too close for him to get out.

    "Don't worry," said Cindi, wincing from the pain in her feet that had been caused by a glass footwear-related accident, "I'll move out of my spot and take yours."

    A crafty look came into Jack's eyes.

    "Oh, that's just what you'd like me to do," Jack said. "If the spot's that valuable, I'm keeping it."

    The magic sigal the parking fairy had chalked on Cindi's left rear tire was beginning to glow.

    "But the spot's no use to you, because you're done shopping," Cindi objected.

    :"Yeah, well, it's my spot, and I'm not moving," the Blighter said.

    Two people happened along just then. One was Prince Charlie, Earl of Studly, a region famed for its bull semen, the other was a parking fairy.

    Maybe it was just the magic blowback from the parking fairy's wand as she turned Cindi's car into a pumpkin, but Studly was so charmed by Cindi that he immediately fell in love.

    "Please," Studly pleaded, "turn this young, beautiful and fecund young woman's car back into its original state, I wish to get busy with her and makes some little princelings and princesslings, that my House may continue to rule, and I think it would really impress her if I got her car back."

    "Can't turn it back until the fine is paid," the parking fairy said. "It's one magic pea."

    "I have a magic pea," Jack the Blighter confided, confidingly. "I'll sell it to you for half your kingdom."

    "But the going rate for a magic pea is one farm," Studly objected. "You're gouging."

    "Clearly, you wish to surge withing my lady's garden of delight," the Blighter said. "Thus, surge pricing applies."

    "I will accept your hand and other projecting parts of you in marriage if you can get my car back to its original state," Cindi declared, declaratively. The pain in her feet was becoming unbearable, and she really just wanted to sit down in her car. Plus, the guy still had half a kingdom.

    "Oh, all right," said the smitten prince, smitingly for some reason. With a flourish, he signed over half his kingdom to Jack the Blighter.

    When he took the pea, Prince Charlie, Earl of Studly, discovered it was hot. As he juggled it in his hands, wincing, Jack winked at him, and Studly remembered that Jacks tend to steal things.

    He quickly dropped the hot pea into the parking fairy's proffered purse. The fairy promptly turned to the pumpkin and waved her wand, turning it into an acorn.

    "It was a Honda Accord, not an acorn," Cindi objected, objectively.

    "My remit was to return the pumpkin to its original state," the parking fairy said. "When you bought the car, did you carefully read what it said on the boot? (Like many fairies, the parking fairy had attended an English boarding school.)

    "But the lady who sold it to me was so nice!" wailed Cindi. "She said she only drove it to black mass every full moon!"

    "Bent old biddy with a wart on her nose and sort of Goth taste in wardrobe?" the fairy asked, questioningly.

    "Well, yes," said Cindi, agreeably.

    "You got taken," the fairy announced. "I'm only allowed to return the vehicle to its original state."

    "I'll bet you'd turn it into a car for another magic pea," suggested Jack, leering at the prince suggestively.

    The prince didn't care to trade off the other half of his kingdom, so he decided to try and persuade the fairy instead, and started moving toward her, raising his hands pleadingly.

    The fairy whipped out her wand and shouted "stop or I'll shoot," while firing her wand. Prince Charlie, Earl of Studly, turned into a frog.

    "You saw him!" the fairy said, "He came at me!"

    "He had his hands up," Cindi replied. I'm afraid that replyingly isn't a word recognized by my spellcheck, so I can't tell you how she replied.

    "Change him back," Cindi suggested, suggestively.

    "He had it coming," the fairy said. "the grand jury will clear me."

    Jack sidled up to the frog and offered to sell him a magic pea for the rest of his kingdom.

    "No, you don't!" Cindi snapped, snappishly. She was a practical woman in all matters not related to the choice of footwear. "He still has half a kingdom, his offer of marriage is still valid, and under recently passed marriage equality laws, I can marry the frog I love. He's my prince charming."

    "Charlie," the frog croaked, correctingly, if that's really a word.

  • Our echoes roll from soul to soul

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    One of my wooden boat friends, Rick, in Australia, is dying, and doing so with dignity and fortitude. I posted this for him:

    from The Princess: The Splendour Falls on Castle Walls

    By Alfred, Lord Tennyson The splendour falls on castle walls
    And snowy summits old in story:
    The long light shakes across the lakes,
    And the wild cataract leaps in glory.
    Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying,
    Blow, bugle; answer, echoes, dying, dying, dying.

    O hark, O hear! how thin and clear,
    And thinner, clearer, farther going!
    O sweet and far from cliff and scar
    The horns of Elfland faintly blowing!
    Blow, let us hear the purple glens replying:
    Blow, bugle; answer, echoes, dying, dying, dying.

    O love, they die in yon rich sky,
    They faint on hill or field or river:
    Our echoes roll from soul to soul,
    And grow for ever and for ever.
    Blow, bugle, blow, set the wild echoes flying,
    And answer, echoes, answer, dying, dying, dying.
    I'm particularly fond of that line about how our echoes roll from soul to soul. Rick, you are a part of all of us now, and what we've learned from you will live on in us, and I hope will allow us to die with the dignity and fortitude you display.

  • Tamir Rice and the depraved heart

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    When I heard that 12-year-old Tamir Rice was shot by Cleveland police after waving a realistic toy gun around, I thought, what a tragedy.  Wouldn't have happened to me as a 12-year-old white kid if I'd been doing something that stupid when I was growing up in Maine, but it's the sort of thing that happens in cities.

    Then I heard that the two officers at the scene did not render  first aid to the kid for four minutes, and at that point an FBI agent who happened to be in the neighborhood came along and rendered assistance.

    In my opinion, that's a crime.

    There are two possible interpretations of this. One is the doofus theory, that the cops were so freaked out by one of them having shot a kid, they didn't know what to do. If that's the case, they were negligent, and so useless in an emergency that I'd say they have no business on a police force.

    The other possibility is more sinister and I'd say less likely. Sometimes, negligence is intended to cause harm or death. These are called depraved heart crimes, or sometimes depraved indifference. If the officers at the scene were convinced that they had screwed up to the point where it could cost them their badges, it might have been to their advantage if the kid died and could not testify.

    In support of the doofus theory, we have information provided by the previous employer of the cop who shot the kid. Timothy Loehmann, the 26-year-old cop who did the shooting, had previously worked of a police department in a suburb of Cleveland called Independence. The city of Independence has taken the unusual step of releasing a letter recommending the dismissal of Loehmann.

    From Cleveland.com:

    A Nov. 29, 2012 letter contained in Tim Loehmann's personnel file from the Independence Police Department says that during firearms qualification training he was "distracted" and "weepy." "He could not follow simple directions, could not communicate clear thoughts nor recollections, and his handgun performance was dismal," according to the letter written by Deputy Chief Jim Polak of the Independence police. The letter recommended that the department part ways with Loehmann, who went on to become a police officer with the Cleveland Division of Police. "I do not believe time, nor training, will be able to change or correct the deficiencies," Polak said.So, maybe the guy had issues and should never have been hired. That doesn't explain why his partner, 46-year-old Frank Garmback, also failed to render first aid. Perhaps there's more to the story, but it's hard to think of a good reason for this.

    The thing that makes both men look bad, and made me think of the phrase "depraved indifference," is the story they told before they knew there was video of the incident.

    From the Daily Kos:

    Not knowing that a camera recorded the entire incident, the police told what appear to be at least five lies about what happened.
    1. Police said that Tamir Rice was seated at a table with other people.
    2. Police said that as they pulled up, they saw Tamir Rice grab the gun and put it in his waistband.
    3. Police said they got out of the car and told Tamir Rice three times to put his hands up but he refused.
    4. Police said that Tamir Rice then reached into his waistband and pulled out the gun, and was then shot and killed by Officer Timothy Loehmann.
    5. Timothy Loehmann was described as a rookie.

    1. Tamir Rice as not seated at a table with other people.
    2. Tamir Rice does not appear to grab the gun and put it in his waistband.
    3. Police shot and killed Tamir in less than two seconds and could not have told him to put his hands up three times.
    4. Tamir Rice absolutely does not pull the air gun out of his waistband and brandish it in any way. This fact is so crucial.
    5. Timothy Loehmann was not a rookie, but had been an officer for over two years.If both officers told this story and it didn't agree with the video of the event, that makes it look to me like they colluded on a story that would exonerate Loehmann.  But why would Garman do that?

    Anyone who has spent time around cops knows that one of the most important traits a cop can have to survive in the work they do and support those they work with is loyalty, and especially loyalty to your partner.

    I don't know if this is a case of misplaced loyalty or if the two men talked about what happened and became convinced that their erroneous account was true. If the latter is the case, it supports the doofus theory and indicates neither man is a reliable witness to a crime, and should not, in my humble opinion, be cops. If the statements of fact that were not true were a conspiracy to clear Loehmann, that would be another reason both men should not be cops.

    Even if that were the case, it would not prove that letting the kid lay there bleeding for four minutes was a depraved heart crime. I'm not a lawyer, but it seems to me that you'd have to prove that they were letting him bleed out to eliminate the only other witness to the shooting.

    That's a high bar to clear, as it should be, because I find it difficult to believe anyone would do that. But then, I find it difficult to believe anyone kills people for the flimsy reasons they do.

    I doubt very much these men will be held criminally liable for failing to render first aid for those four minutes.

    But unless I hear a damned good explanation for that failure, I'll always wonder: Did they have depraved hearts, or were they doofuses, or is there something I'm missing here?




  • Is America really so violent?

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    People who compare the United States to European countries say we have an extraordinarily high murder rate. But is that the appropriate comparison?

    For a country located in the Americas, the United states has a relatively low murder rate. Canada and Chile are the exceptions. I suspect the issue is cultural. One thing that has happened with colonization is that some cultural aspects of the mother country are preserved from the time of colonization. I would look to the murder rate in the mother country at the time the country was colonized to explain a high murder rate in that culture today.

    The murder rate in Europe in the middle ages was extremely high, and dropped quite a bit during the time the
    Murder rate per 100,000 inhabitants in 2012.
      1-2
      5-10
      >20
    Americas were being settled. Steven Pinker, in his book The Better Angels of Our Nature, states that murder rates were about 30 times higher in the middle ages than they are now. If my theory is correct, the earlier a country was settled, the more likely it should be to have a high murder rate.

    This seems to go against the fact that Chile has a low murder rate, even though the conquest of Chile started in 1540. One answer to this is that the low murder rate in Chile reflects the relatively strong state there. A strong state tends to reduce the murder rate because it's not good for the state to have taxpayers killing each other, any more than it helps a farmer to have his livestock fighting.

    The early Chilean state was small and homogenous, prevented from expanding northward by the desert or southward by the unconquered Mapuche Indians. The conquest of Chile was gradual, and as a consequence of failing to conquer the Mapuche, Chile relied more than most Spanish colonies on European settlers. In fact, parts of the country attracted German settlers in the mid-19th century. Much of the country's expansion occurred after it declared independence from Spain in 1818, and with many immigrants arriving after that, the country could be expected to be culturally closer to modern Europe that nations settled earlier.

    One of the uses Britain made of its American colonies was as a place to transport criminals. Once transportation to America as a punishment became impossible, Australia and Canada began to absorb Britain's malcontents. And whereas the French had chosen mainly to trade with the Indians and send only people they could trust to the new world, the British sent people pushed off the land by the Inclosure Acts, criminals and pretty much anyone they felt they were well shed of. As a consequence, the British culture imported to Canada was that of the 19th century, while the British culture imported to America was that of the 17th century.

    Contrast this to Venezuela, a country where Columbus actually landed, which was colonized to a great extent in the 16th century. We find that it has an intentional homicide rate of 53.7 per 100,000 annually, in contrast to the 3.1 of Chile  or the 1.6 of Canada, and the United States of America turns out to be one of the least dangerous countries in the new world with a murder rate of 4.7 per 100,000 (all figures are for 2012.)

    So, if the culture of violence in new world countries reflects the timing of their formative European colonization, what made European murder rates fall so much?

    For one thing, violence became harder to get away with. As European states became more centralized, policing got better, and it became harder to walk away from a murder and start over elsewhere. In addition, as states became more centralized, warfare within a country became less practical -- dukes who might have tried to expand their duchy found that they were restrained by the increasing power of kings.

    Another factor was the decline of subsistence farming and the increase in trade and industry. The key to wealth and power became less how many farms you could subjugate by the sword, and more the trade and industry you could dominate. Power moved from men with horses and armor to men with ledgers and gold.

    While many a duke had risen to his post by violence (a duke was originally a war leader) few merchant princes found violence the path to influence and wealth. Because commerce is not a zero sum game, cooperation was a better path.

    The shift from agrarian empires to mercantilist empires was a shift from warring tribes to warring nations, in which the violent domination of resources and trade routes led to greater national wealth. This was the great era of colonization. The shift from mercantilist empires to capitalism put further emphasis on cooperation, and undermined the colonial empires. Modern global capital creates stateless income that undermines colonial empires and makes wars less rewarding. Because the capital doesn't enrich the state that spends money one wars, but goes where it won't be taxed, much of the feedback mechanism that made empires possible is gone.

    So, it's easy enough to see why violence has become less common in Europe. From the top down, it has become less rewarding and harder to get away with. The question remains, why did their colonies preserve the barbaric attitudes of an earlier age, and what can be done to move them beyond that?


  • Anomie and the search for meaning

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    The French have a word for it: Anomie. No norms. It is a condition when people find themselves so disconnected from social norms that they cannot find their place in the world. Emile Durheim used the term in his book, Suicide, published in 1887.

    His theory was that a rapid change in the values and standards of society would lead to a feeling of alienation
    and purposelessness. Picture the situation; society is changing rapidly, and while it may try to prepare you for your place in it, that place is no longer there by the time you are trained for it. Your entire life plan, the existence you have spent your childhood and adolescence preparing for, is nowhere to be found.

    Are you a failure? No, worse. There was no path to a life of honorable labor, no place for you in the world.

    You cannot even fail, because all that you have prepared for is simply not there. You were groomed to play a part in a pantomime that has been cancelled. And here you are, alone on the stage in a parody of makeup for a part no one cares to see you play. How meaningful is your life, then? If society were a dictionary, you would not even be a word, just an indecipherable squiggle in the margin.

    That is anomie, diagnosed at the end of the 19th century, discussed to death to 20thcentury, a wallflower at the party in the early 21stcentury.

    As you might expect from the title of Durkheim's book, suicide was one common response to this condition. Perhaps it still is. We don't talk about anomie much anymore. People still kill themselves, people still feel disconnected from social norms, but that 19th century term is less common than it once was. It's a shame, because the term explains a lot.

    Much of what makes us human is in our interaction with others. It is in the social realm that we display our sanity or madness, and our very humanity. That is why solitary confinement is such a severe punishment, one that can even produce psychological effects such as hallucinations, paranoia and obsessive thoughts. We are meant to be social creatures, incomplete without interaction with others.

    Once, society changed slowly, and when we spoke of the Old Kingdom, the Middle Kingdom, and the New Kingdom, we meant social orders that differed little and lasted a thousand years each. Then it was possible for generation following generation to fall easily into their social roles, and we can suppose anomie was not a problem. Those days ended in the Axial age, which we discussed in this post..

    When the world started changing too rapidly for an entire society's structure to adapt new places for its members, individuals had to find their own places. That may seem hard enough, but when they invented their new positions, they had no norms established for the new ways of life they were inventing. They needed guidance, and they got it in a great age of prophesy. Across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, prophets told people that they should be compassionate, that they should do unto others as they would have done unto them. And that was enough, for two or three millennium. People could think for themselves, and still think about others, with the guidance of the prophets.

    And then, the world started changing faster, and faster, and faster. The feeling of disconnection from social norms, social roles, spread wider and wider. Some felt the change, and said "God is dead." Some felt the change, and said, "God, save me!" and started churches dedicated to preventing change. Some felt the change, and the loneliness, and the pain, and became angry, and said, "God, I will kill those who caused this!" and became terrorists. And some, strangely enough, said, "God is dead. I bet we can build a better one," and started dreaming of an all-knowing computer.

    Do you want to know how they felt? Do you know who's to blame? Look in a mirror. No, seriously, that's one way to study the problem. Psychologists have people look in a mirror in order to get them to focus on themselves, in order to study one of the central problems of psychotherapy.

    People come to see a psychologist very often because they are depressed. The psychologist needs to assess the problem, so has the client talk about themselves.

    This self-focus causes the people talking about themselves to become sadder if they perform this self-focus in private, or to experience social anxiety if they do it in public. In essence, they experience a heightened sense of anomie, of disassociation from the warmth and comfort of human contact, because they are focused on themselves.

    There is the problem, then. To be human requires participation in human society, and rapid social change can cast us adrift, maroon us in an island of the self. And as we try to understand ourselves, we focus on ourselves, and feel more isolated and alone as a consequence.

    The shared hallucinations of our social constructs are meaningless if we are alone. If we are only animals, eating, sleeping, reproducing, we are only the appetites our genes have programmed us to have. If we are human, we live in a world invisible to most animals, a world of language and symbol, in which what we pass on to others may not even be physical matter, such as genes. It may be our ideas, ideals, songs and gods. It may be the world of meaning, the most human world of all.

    However out of place we may feel, however useless our social skills and unattainable our aspirations, what makes us human is the people who have shaped us. We are never alone, because they are a part of us, and we are a part of those whose lives we've touched. Even the worst families teach their children to be human. What those children rejects from those who have shaped them sets the boundaries of their souls, what they accept gives those souls their content.

    Unlike most animals, we can cooperate with one another even without family ties. This is because in that ethereal world of symbolic thought, we can pass on a part of who we are to people genetically unrelated to us. Our thoughts are at least as fecund as our bodies, and we lust for the sort of social intercourse that will allow us to transmit our wisdom to each other and build up something greater than ourselves.

    Anomie is a symptom of the failure to do this, a sign that we must find a way to reach one another and find comfortable niches for ourselves in the great body of civilization.

  • How democracy ends: The Sjem-Wiemar problem

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was once a force to be reckoned with, a country more powerful than Russia and far bigger than most of the countries of Europe. What happened to that empire?

    Well, the commonwealth was one of the few countries in Europe that had a really influential parliament. It was called the Sjem, and it operated as a legislative body starting in 1493 and became the legislative body of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth when that was founded in 1569. It was, like many republics prior to the modern era, not particularly democratic. Its members were indirectly (by regional bodies) elected by the nobility, which amounted to about 10% of the population.

    For much of its existence, any member could nullify legislation that had just passed and end the session by shouting "Nie pozwalam!" (I do not allow.) This is known as a liberum veto.

    Harvard political scientist Grzegorz Ekiert argued that:
    The principle of the liberum veto preserved the feudal features of Poland's political system, weakened the role of the monarchy, led to anarchy in political life, and contributed to the economic and political decline of the Polish state. Such a situation made the country vulnerable to foreign invasions and ultimately led to its collapse.For one thing, foreign regimes discovered they could bribe legislators to use their veto, thereby paralyzing the government. This led to the partition of the empire and foreign occupation.

    In Germany,  the Wiemar Republic had a rough start, but after the hyperinflation got tamped down, there were some very good years -- until the crash of 1929. The American banks that were helping Germany pay its reparations for WW I had to call their loans in, unemployment went up just as it did in other countries, and the people responded by throwing the bums out. Unfortunately, the bums they threw in tended to be people who didn't believe in democracy, like the the German National Peoples' Party, the Communists, and the Nazis.

    Unable to form a majority coalition, Heinrich Brüning formed a minority coalition, but was forced to often rule by emergency decree, because the Reichstag could not pass legislation. Unfortunately, his policies for dealing with the Depression were exactly wrong -- he tightened credit and rolled back wage increases, making him unpopular with the electorate and the Reichstag.

    Since his decrees were actually ruining the country, Brüning opened the door for the election of populists like the Nationalist Party and the Nazis. Even business interests turned against him, though it must be admitted that some started financing Hitler long before Brüning became chancellor.

    In each case, democracy failed because it could not govern. Francis Fukuyama, in Political Order and Political Decay, argues that American political order is decaying because it has become to easy for special interests to veto decisions. This, he claims, leads to a government unable to function well enough to address the nation's challenges, which undermines the peoples' faith in the ability to address their problems, which leads them to deny it the resources to address their problems, which leads to...well, you get the idea.

    The destruction of the Polish Commonwealth and the descent of Germany into the totalitarian hell of Nazi dictatorship had this in common -- democratic, representative government ceased to function. When democracy can't address the peoples' problems, they will turn to a strongman or watch things get worse and worse.

    So it is with real dread that I read this:
    To prevent Obama from becoming the hero who fixed Washington, McConnell decided to break it. And it worked. Six years into the affair, we now take it for granted that nothing will pass on a bipartisan basis, no appointment will go through smoothly, and everything the administration tries to get done will take the form of controversial use of executive power. Sound familiar? This is the way democracy is destroyed. As long as politicians find they can increase their clout by making sure government does not address peoples' problems, and not take the blame for how things turn out as a result, our democratic system is in danger.





  • How to start a dark age and what myths should do for you

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    The term "dark ages" is not much used anymore, but it still conjures up notions of an age of ignorance following the fall of a great civilization.

    It was first applied to the entire Middle Ages in about 1330 by Petrarch. Light and darkness had symbolized good and evil, but Petrarch made them symbols of knowledge and ignorance. He saw his own time as one of darkness, and aspired to a time of greater light.

    That time of light arrived as the Renaissance some time later, the dawning of a time when people admired knowledge and it became more widespread. Then came a time when archaeology started digging up the "dark ages" and found a great deal had been known and accomplished in the middle ages, so now we seldom used the term for anything but the early middle ages.

    It's easy to put a starting date to the dark ages. Emperor Justinian closed pagan and Jewish school in 529 AD, and the dark ages began.

    The decree, as translated by James Hannam, reads as follows:
    We wish to widen the law once made by us and by our father of blessed memory against all remaining heresies (we call heresies those faiths which hold and believe things otherwise than the catholic and apostolic orthodox church), so that it ought to apply not only to them but also to Samaritans [Jews] and pagans. Thus, since they have had such an ill effect, they should have no influence nor enjoy any dignity, nor acting as teachers of any subjects, should they drag the minds of the simple to their errors and, in this way, turn the more ignorant of them against the pure and true orthodox faith; so we permit only those who are of the orthodox faith to teach and accept a public stipend. Justinian seems mainly to have aimed this at the Athenian Academy, which traced its (sometimes interrupted) existence back to its founding by Plato in the early 4th century BCE, but he also closed Jewish schools and schools run by those judged to be heretics.

    In so doing, he centralized power over what was deemed to be true. The decree made it illegal to teach things that were contrary to the teachings of the "catholic and apostolic orthodox church."

    There were Greek philosophers who had figured out not only that the earth was round, but had calculated pretty accurately its circumference. They knew that the rotation of the earth explained the sequence of day and night. Justinian didn't make it a crime for the great pagan scholars of his age to write and publish -- that came later -- but he shut down the Academy, leaving the scholars to make their own way.

    Hammon is a skeptic about the impact of this action. Many pagan documents survived, and were even taught in Christian academies.

    But the schools in the Eastern Roman Empire were survivors after the fall of the Western Roman Empire in
    Justinian476. Justinian was the last of the Latin-speaking emperors of the Eastern Roman Empire. Justinian sought to reconquer the territory that had been the Western Roman Empire, but failed. As the empire's grip over Europe failed, political institutions that had united it failed, and the only pan-European institution remaining was the Church. It became the dominant force in the preservation of knowledge and the maintenance of teaching institutions and traditions. And it demanded allegiance to what the Church believed.

    Some scholars and some texts made there way to Persia, and with the rise of the Muslim religion, schools that remained in Alexandria and Cairo fell into Muslim hands. Thus began the golden age of Muslim science and philosophy, early in the 7th century AD.

    The golden age of Muslim science and philosophy spanned from 750 AD to about 1100 AD. What happened then?

    The Incoherence of the Philosophers, that's what. The second-most influential Muslim cleric (after Muhammad) was a scholar named  Abu Hamid Al Ghazali, who wrote a book of that title published in the late 11th century. He argued against those Muslim scholars who had based their works on Plato and Aristotle were wrong -- essentially, heretical. The spread of his thought led to religious institutions that taught that human reason by itself cannot establish truth. Although Al-Ghazali himself had nothing against science, this in effect meant that if you really wanted to establish truth, you didn't go to a scientist or a philosopher who had devoted his life and efforts to learning about the thing in question. Instead, the final arbiter of truth would be a cleric who specialized in the Koran.

    This led to a decay of Muslim science and philosophy. Some would say, it led to a dark age for their civilization.

    This seems to be the way to cause a dark age: You simply give religion authority over establishing what is true of the physical world.

    Religion is in the business of delivering eternal verities, not of discovering new things. In fact, in such celebrated cases of the discovery of new things as Galileo's astronomy or Darwin's Origin of Species, religion has fought against new knowledge of how the universe works.

    Joseph Campbell, in Myths to Live By, wrote that religion or myth (the difference seems to be that myths are religious beliefs no longer in use) serves four functions:

    One, "to waken and maintain in the individual a sense of awe and gratitude in relation to the mystery dimension of the universe..."

    Two, "to offer an image of the universe that will be in accord with the knowledge of the time..."

    Three, "to validate, support, and imprint the norms of a given, specific moral order, that, namely, of the society in which the individual is to live."

    Four, "to guide him, stage by stage, in health, strength, and harmony of spirit, through the whole foreseeable course of a useful life."

    Can a religion that fails in the second function succeed in the other three? I doubt very much it can, because a failure in one area undermines faith in the truth of sacred knowledge in all the others. How could a church that taught the earth was flat have any authority after we had photographed the earth from the moon?

    But the Catholic Church did not remove Galileo's books teaching heliocentrism from the its  Index of Forbidden Books until 1758, and in 1992 the Pope announced that the church accepted that the earth moves around the sun. I can find no indication, however, of the verdict of the Inquisition against Galileo being rescinded. The committee Pope John Paul II appointed in 1979 had, by 1992, concluded that the Inquisition had acted properly by the standards of its day, although Galileo was right about the sun and earth.

    So, that's all right. Retard intellectual progress by a century of so, and it's all in good fun. In 2008, Pope Benedict XVI cancelled an appearance at La Sapienza University because some students and professors sent him a letter protesting the Pope's expressed views on Galileo. He was probably thinking, "why you talkin' 'bout old stuff?"

    It was the notion that there had been a dark age that gave people the notion to call the blossoming of knowledge and science the Enlightenment.

    The Counter-Enlightenment, which started not long after the Church took Galileo's books off the Index of Forbidden Books, has argued that the Enlightenment undermines religion and the political and social order. This is, in fact, the basic stance of conservatism since at least Edmund Burke. The term "Counter-Enlightenment," as I'm using it here does not refer to a single coherent movement with identifiable leaders, more to a wide span of groups and individuals who have argued against the goal of constant progress to new knowledge and a more rational society espoused by the great Enlightenment thinkers.

    They are probably right in arguing that the Enlightenment has undermined religion and the existing social order. After all, the Inquisition is a shadow of its former self, the church has had to repeatedly retreat on who is listed on the Index of Forbidden Books, and the most recent Pope has finally said that the beliefs of the Church do not conflict with the big bang theory about the origins of the universe or Darwin's ideas about the origin of species. It would be better if the church had not involved itself in such matters in the first place, but if it must make pronouncements about the nature of the physical world, it will have to change its tune when our knowledge changes or be undermined by new knowledge.

    We are still fighting this battle. Zealots want their religion's version of the origin of specie taught in public schools (they originated as God made them) and moral notions, such as whether it is better to condemn homosexuals or accept them, are being fought out as the culture changes. A church that has failed to distinguish between its core beliefs and issues that seem less religious than social must change or fail the test of providing a world view in harmony with the knowledge of the society to which it offers spiritual guidance.

    The Catholic Church is a handy way to talk about this, precisely because it is so well organized. But it is accompanied in its problems with the Enlightenment by people of many faiths. The easy way to deal with such problems used to be the one used on Galileo, tell the inconvenient person to shut up or die. But at this point in history, the world is changing too fast and the knowledge base outside the church is to big to be controlled.


  • Market power, monopsony and the porn industry

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    In a previous post, we discussed how changes in the music industry explain a bit of the Solow paradox, the fact the new technology is being adopted, but productivity hasn't seen much increase. Now we have another example of a way in which technology is suppressing, rather than increasing, productivity growth.

    It also shows how power can transfer wealth from one group to another in ways a free market wouldn't allow based on monopsony, the dominance of a buyer in the marketplace.

    The porn industry, once an economically vibrant part of the economy, has been devastated by changes in the business even as it adopts new technology. Porn stars once had a decent income from their performances, but now many have to work as prostitutes on the side to support themselves. It's a bit like the musicians who used to make most of their money from recordings, and now find they must get their living from live performances.

    Like the musicians, part of their problem is piracy. Computer technology allows the rapid and almost perfect copying of music and videos. As a result, many viewings of porn have been taken entirely out of  the economic sphere.

    But in the case of porn, there's another problem, the market power of the main distributor. The industry is dominated by Mindgeek, formerly Manwin. The company describes itself as being founded in 2013, but that's just when it changed its name back to Mindgeek after a period of being known as Manwin. Each name change came after its owners ran into legal trouble, resulting in the sale of the business.

    Mindgeek has something like monopsony power over the porn studios. They own an array of "tubes," the Youtube-like on-line distribution channels for porn.  They also own a lot of porn producers, and are essential for the distribution of the works of other porn producers. According to a recent Slate article, Mindgeek doesn't always pay the porn producers when they put up a video on one of their sites:
    Even content producers that MindGeek owns have trouble getting their movies off MindGeek's tube sites. The result has been a vampiric ecosystem: MindGeek's producers make porn films mostly for the sake of being uploaded on to MindGeek's free tube sites, with lower returns for the producers but higher returns for MindGeek, which makes money off of the tube ads that does not go to anyone involved in the production side. The result is that performers have to have sex more times to support themselves, performing for the videos and doing their "live" performances as prostitutes.But isn't more work for less money lower productivity as we account for such things?

    There was a time when one company in an industry owning most of the production and distribution would have set off alarms in the Justice Department and resulted in anti-trust action. That changed in 1980 with the election of Ronald Reagan. Word soon went out that the justice department would not be worrying about practices such as predatory pricing, and in fact, was really only worried about monopoly power if it resulted in higher prices to consumers, essentially meaning that the Justice Department was now mainly interested in price fixing in its anti-trust enforcement. It was a legal theory advanced by Robert Bork in a book titled The Antitrust Paradox.

    This radically changed the incentives for American businesses. Predatory pricing, a practice that got Safeway in trouble with the Justice Department in the 1960s, became a notorious tactic of WalMart. The key was not to use this power to raise prices, but to dominate its markets and use its market power to squeeze producers.

    Mindgeek is using a similar tactic. It is distributing the product for free on ad-supported sites, while squeezing porn production companies and performers to lower its costs. It routinely violates the intellectual property rights to sexual performances, but is so essential to production companies and porn performers for distribution that many say they can't speak out about the problem.

    So, why don't the production companies get together and refuse to sell to Mindgeek unless they get paid? Well, if they demand a given price for their goods, that would be price fixing, one of the few aspects of the anti-trust act that the government is still enforcing.

    Production of porn films is down 75 percent from the year before Mindgeek was founded. DVD sales of porn are down 50% over the same time span, because who wants to pay for porn they can watch for free if they tolerate some ads?

    Netflicks and Amazon are starting to produce their own content. We can expect more ethical behavior from them than we see from Mindgeek, but the incentives will be the same. We need to re-examine how our legislation regarding market power affects people selling their wares to distributors or working for them.

    The paradox referred to in Bork's book was that antitrust action to increase competition could increase, rather than decrease, prices. What he either failed to realize or didn't care about was that monompsony power, the market power of a dominant buyer, interferes with the business arrangements of people who contract to sell their wares or labor to that buyer. This represents a transfer of wealth from one group to another based on power rather than the workings of a free market just as much as price fixing does.

  • Are we prisoners of language or the authors of our lives?

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    The Sapir-Whorf hypothesis tells us that language, because it gives us the categories we use to think, affects how we perceive the world. Some researchers have gone so far as to propose that people who have different color lexicons actually see colors differently.

    Color me skeptical. I think it highly likely that the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis is correct on more culturally conditioned matters like our sense of fairness, but find it unlikely that it has much, if any, effect on how we see color, as opposed to how we talk about what we perceive.

    But this basic insight, which has really been with us since Ferdinand de Saussure's book,  A Course in General Linguistics, was published in 1913, gets at a deeper question. Are we prisoners of the languages that give our minds the categories we think with? Do we have individual agency, or are we prisoners of the structure of meaning?

    Is language a prison that restricts us, or a prism through which we see new things?

    Marxist political theory has insisted that the structure of meaning is a prison, that those who initiate us into it are enforcing capitalist cultural norms. Structuralist thinkers like Roland Barthes argued against what he called the cult of the author, and in general, structuralists argued against the relevance of human agency and the autonomous individual.

    Is this what language looks like?Structuralism has lost ground in its original field of linguistics. Noam Chomsky, for example, proposed that while structuralism was all right for describing phonology and morphology, it was inadequate for syntax. It could not explain the generation of the infinite variety of possible sentences or deal with the ambiguity of language.

    When Saussure developed structuralism, the previous movement in linguistics had been philology, which studied texts through their history, and the meanings of words as they have changed. This is a necessary process when examining classical texts, and philology has sort of calved off from the glacier of linguistics.

    Saussure proposed studying language synchronically, that is, at it exists at one time, which was perhaps a good corrective to the habits of his profession. But it did mean that the method was never intended to examine where the structure came from or how it changed. I doubt Saussure anticipated his method completely displacing the earlier methods of studying language. He simply felt is would be helpful to look at language as it exists, as well.

    As the understanding of the power of language spread, however, it did tend to obscure the role of the individual. Its proposal to study language as it is, rather than try to attach it to its past, fit with the modernist movement's desire to shed tradition and make the world new and rational, sweeping away the dust and sentiment of the centuries and plunging into the future. At the same time, the concept of the structure of language and thought was frightening. How could we leave the past behind when all we could think was already in the structure?

    Some tried to escape the structure of meaning, by making art that represented nothing, writing that tried to trick the brain into a space not already subsumed into the structure. But in the end, you cannot escape from meaning except into meaninglessness, and why do any work that is meaningless?

    We are not words in a dictionary that can never be revised. We define ourselves, in fact, we are the source of meaning. The web of meaning we call language would disappear if there were no minds to know it, no people to speak and hear. We learn by play, and it is through creative play that we expand the realm of meaning. A web without connections is just a tangle of fibers. We are the connections, and our relationships to each other are the fibers.

    Barthes was wrong. Authors are important, and authorship is pervasive. We are all the authors of our acts, writing the stories of our lives. Learning language and the other structures of society enable us to do this, to create new meanings, affirm or modify traditional meanings, and to influence others.

    We need not choose between being ourselves and being part of humanity, because we cannot help being both. Yes, we are in large part made up of those we've known, the books we've read, the traditions we've learned, but we are the vessels in which those things are stored and remade and passed on with our own essence included.





  • The Solow paradox, public goods, and the replicator economy.

    by John MacBeath Watkins

    Robert Solow, a Nobel-prize-winning economist, remarked way back in 1987 that "what everyone feels to have been a technological revolution...has been accompanied everywhere...by a slowdown in productivity growth."

    This has become known as the Solow paradox.

    The golden age of productivity growth in the U.S. was between 1939 and 2000, with a slowdown in the 1980s, an increase in the Clinton Administration, and a slowdown again since.

    What happened in 1939? Well, we began preparing for war. We didn't just build tanks, guns, ships, and aircraft, we also built roads and airports, and we dredge harbors and improved port facilities. Prior to World War II, flying boats were popular for serving areas that didn't have airports. After the war, there were plenty of airports.

    The infrastructure binge continued after the war, and Dwight Eisenhower thought his greatest accomplishment was the Interstate Highway Act, which knit the country together with ribbons of road. Eisenhower understood logistics. He also understood that training was important if you wished to mobilize a large enterprise, and he elevated education to a cabinet-level office.

    The federal investment in roads and education set loose the potential of the people and the land. And what have we done with this legacy of supply-side investment in public goods?

    We've disinvested.  Our public goods are getting old, and we've pushed onto students the cost of financing their education, so that someone can come out of college very easily in $100,000 debt. Higher education keeps getting cut while more is spent on other things, like prisons and welfare. Yet providing better education is one way we should be able to spend less on prisons and welfare.

    Our bridges are getting old, some of our roads are getting rough.

    But why didn't our technology give us the added productivity our disinvestment in public goods was taking away?

    Maybe it did. Or maybe, sometimes technology is not necessarily useful for increasing measured productivity.

    You measure productivity by seeing how many widgets are produced over a period of time by a given number of people. For example, in the cottage industry of music that existed before recorded music came along, you had to either make your own or hire a musician to make the music for you. Every song required a person making music to happen.

    When recorded music cam along, you no longer had to have a musician present to have a song. This meant fewer people would be employed as musicians, but also that people at the top of the profession could provide music for a larger number of people. A musician could sing a song once, and millions of people could buy that song and play it repeatedly. There was more music in our lives, it was made by the best musicians, and the cost was lower. Productivity increased.

    But we don't know how much, because we weren't calculating the productivity of musicians. A few musicians at the top were more productive, but once a record had been sold, it could be played many times. Those repeat performances were taken out of the economic sphere, and not counted as performances in any accounting sense. The metric became the sale of the record, rather than the performance of the song.

    But what happened with the digital revolution in music? Well, this:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/think-artists-dont-make-anything-off-music-sales-these-graphs-prove-you-wrong/273571/

    Unless there was a dramatic decrease in the number of musicians, this represents a huge decrease in productivity. Far fewer songs are being sold, and if the number of musicians remains constant, their productivity, measured by the usual economic methods, has decreased dramatically.

    But we know that this has not been accompanied by an increase in the cost of a song. What has happened instead is that much of the music produced has been taken out of the economic sphere altogether. People are pirating the songs, and getting music for free. There is a cost to this; it's not really as easy to steal a song as to buy it, but those who wish to sell a song are competing with the free copy that can be pirated by acquiring some skill and jettisoning some scruples.

    In the realm of classified ads, most of those are free on Craigslist. Until recently, most newspapers have made their digital product free. As a result, whole swaths of the economy have come out of the economic sphere. When you produce something for a lower price, you increase productivity. When you produce it for free, in economic terms you aren't producing anything.

    Thus, we have a different paradox, that of the replicator economy. On Star Trek, replicators can make anything you want for free. But if everything you need is free, how does anyone get paid? Musicians are already facing the replicator economy. Writers may face it soon.

    This shows that not all technology produces increases in economic productivity, because some of it takes things out of the economic sphere.

    In addition, highly-skilled artisans who were more productive than the average person found it impossible to keep making money at their craft. Take the example of the weavers and what William Black called the "dark, satanic mills" that replaced them.

    They increased the number of yards of fabric per worker, and reduced the level of skill required by the worker. Weavers, who had made a good living because they were more productive than average, were put out of work. Some became Luddites, smashing the machinery that was eclipsing their way of life, but in the end, they lost.

    They were replaced by low-skilled, low-paid workers, including in many cases children. The price of fabric went down, but the way of life of the people working to make the fabric became worse. And while productivity was increased in the making of fabric, the skilled artisans found their skill no longer required.

    A skilled artisan who ends up working as a laborer or a waiter is going to become less productive. And every disruptive technology must have the effect of obsoleting some skills. It takes time for people to adjust, and some never will. Society as a whole may benefit, but in the disrupted industry, there is some immiseration, and among the displaced workers, there will be a decline in productivity. In fact, the immiseration of the obsolete workers removes the incentive for other industries to become more productive, because it drives down the price of labor.

    So, what does increase productivity?

    Full employment. I know, I know, productivity actually climbs in a recession because you lay off your least productive workers, but in the long run, only a shortage of workers convinces companies to make capital investments to reduce the number of workers needed. If you have to bid up the price of workers to attract employees, it makes sense to increase productivity.

    Right now, we have the spectacle of cash-rich companies buying back their own stock, which is great for managers who have stock options, but not great for productivity.

    Disinvestment in infrastructure has been bad for productivity, and we could kill two birds with one stone by catching up on that, which would increase employment, and build improvements that would unleash some productivity. Investment in public capital goods could increase employment enough to stimulate investment in private capital goods.

    But what are the chances of that? We have an entire political party dedicated to the proposition that government spending can't produce jobs.Until we get better lawmakers, we won't have better policy.





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